Why are we so bad at separating luck and skill?
“Why are we so bad at separating luck and skill? Why are we so uncomfortable knowing that results can be beyond our control? Why do we create such a strong connection between results and the quality of the decisions preceding them?”
Is it skill or luck? If it’s a skill, it’s replicable.
If it’s luck, it’s not.
Firstly, “Why are we so bad at separating luck and skill?”
There are 3 biases here:
Attribution bias: We tend to attribute our successes to skill and our failures to bad luck
Hindsight bias: After an event occurs, we tend to see it as more predictable than it was
Illusion of control: We often overestimate our ability to control events Second, “Why are we so uncomfortable knowing that results can be beyond our control?”
This discomfort likely comes from our need for control. We want things to be within our control. There comes anxiety reduction too. If we can control outcomes, we reduce the anxiety about the future.
Outcomes or results can really be beyond our control. Sometimes we want things to go a certain way, but ends up betraying you.
Accept that fact.
Lastly, ”Why do we create such a strong connection between results and the quality of the decisions preceding them?”
It’s easier to judge based on clear outcomes than to analyse complex decision processes. Society rewards results, not processes. So what can we do here?
Cultivate the practice of identifying the role of luck in both successes and failures
Reward good decision-making processes in your team, not just outcomes